NMDC warns of Maoist threats, market share risk as JSW, AMNS India ramp up iron ore output

Mumbai, August 13, 2025 (IST) – India’s largest merchant iron ore producer, NMDC Ltd, has raised multiple operational and market-related red flags in its Annual Report for FY 2024–25, including security threats, stiffening competition, and global demand uncertainties.

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Security Concerns in Bailadila Region

The company reiterated that Maoist activity in the Bailadila region of Chhattisgarh, which accounts for the majority of its production, remains a “risk and threat.” NMDC said it is in constant touch with government agencies to ensure employee and asset safety. The location’s logistical disadvantage was also flagged as a continuing operational challenge.

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Rising Competition from Captive Miners

The report pointed to the auction rule as a major factor increasing competitive pressure, with steel majors JSW and AM/NS India acquiring captive mines and ramping up production.

“This is likely to adversely impact NMDC’s market share in the medium to long term,” the company noted.

Upcoming mine auctions may further boost supply from integrated steel producers and other merchant players.

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Price & Demand Volatility

NMDC warned of fluctuating demand and volatile iron ore prices, especially in the global market, which could make imports more attractive for Indian steelmakers and depress domestic prices.

Demand from China — which accounts for over 80% of India’s iron ore exports — has weakened due to declining steel production and a shift towards electric arc furnace (EAF) and induction furnace (IF) recycling methods.

• Iron ore fines & pellet exports fell 36% YoY in FY25.

• Imports rose to 6.5 million tonnes in FY25 from 5.3 million tonnes in FY24.

“If this trend continues, India could become a net importer of iron ore,” NMDC cautioned.

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Diversification into Coal & Critical Minerals

The PSU miner is diversifying into coal mining and expects the Tokisud North block in Jharkhand to be operational in FY26, with the Rohn coal block to follow soon. However, it noted that the opening of coal mining to commercial players could intensify competition.

NMDC is also pursuing critical minerals:

• Nickel: Proposed reservation of Kansa Nickel Block in Odisha, estimated to hold 40 MT of reserves with over 1% Ni content and cobalt potential. Exploration may be completed by Q3 FY26.

• Lithium: Submitted a proposal to reserve 24.95 sq km in Raichur, Karnataka for prospecting. The matter is under review by the state government.

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NMDC’s strategic shift into coal, nickel, and lithium is aimed at reducing dependency on iron ore and tapping into India’s critical minerals mission, but the company warns that both domestic and international market headwinds remain significant.