Share Market Highlights 24 September 2025: Sensex falls 386 pts, Nifty slips 112; IT, Auto drag markets lower

GS on Maruti

Upgrade to Buy, TP Raised to Rs 18900

To factor in

Potential pickup in market for entry level cars post GST cuts & price changes

Resumption of new model launches after a gap of 2.5 years with Victoris SUV + eVitara

Favorable exposure to pay commission in upcoming auto demand cycle

Relatively low CO2 risk vs peers heading into CAFE 3 regime in FY28E

Investec on Maruti

Buy, TP Raised to Rs 18475

Well placed to benefit from anticipated demand upturn driven by GST rate rationalisation & monetary easing measures

Recent launch of Victoris should strengthen Maruti’s presence in fastgrowing mid-size SUV space

Additionally, implementation of 8th pay commission from 2026 should help Maruti (as 15% MSIL customer base is government employees).

Exports to remain robust, driven by healthy demand for SUVs (such as Fronx, Jimny), ramp-up of E-Vitara production and expanding presence in various geographies.

Val of 29x FY27E P/E vs 5Y avg of 28x is supportive

HSBC Asia Strategy – India Upgrade

India now appears attractive on a regional basis

Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral; Sensex target at 94,000

Asia equities are up ~20% YTD, largely driven by domestic retail investors (esp. in China), despite heavy foreign fund outflows

India is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral – valuations have normalized, government policy is supportive, and foreign positioning remains light.

China’s rally continues, fueled by retail liquidity, though markets look crowded; Hong Kong remains volatile.

Japan and Korea look stretched after strong run-ups; ASEAN equities remain subdued due to politics

Earnings growth expectations can fall a little further

Government policy is becoming a positive factor for equities

GS on Ashok Leyland

Downgrade to N, TP Rs 140

See limited upside after recent rally

Thesis around pickup in mix towards higher tonnage vehicles & improving margin environment for CV industry is now more accurately reflected in current stock price

With a broader economy wide shift away from capex and towards consumption, expect car volume growth to exceed CV volume growth over next 12 months

Nuvama on CESC

Upgrade to buy, TP Rs 200

CESC’s RE growth plans have solidified; it aims to double PAT to Rs28bn over FY25–30E led by

i) 1.2/3.2GW RE addition by FY27E/29E and 10GW target by FY32E—3.8GW approved/7.6GW transmission connectivity applied for in high RE potential states

ii) New solar manufacturing initiative (3GW each cell, module) CoD by FY28E.

While CMP captures recent tariff hikes/RA recovery, valuations underplay strong RE pipeline & solar manufacturing initiative while a potential UP discom win could add a new growth optionality

Nuvama on Minda Corp

Buy, TP Rs 620

Minda’s Vision 2030 meet Highlights

i) 2030 revenue/ EBITDA target of INR175bn/21bn implies a CAGR of 28%/30% over FY25–30E

ii) Incremental revenue over FY25–30E to be aided by growth in existing business, premiumisation, higher exports, new products and other opportunities

iii) Premiumisation to be driven by growth in the Smart Access, Cockpit Electronics and EV Harness segments.

iv) By FY30E, revenue share of PVsshall expand to 25% (14% in FY25), 2/3Ws’ to fall to 40% (47%), and CVs’ to dip to 25% (28%)

Antique on UPL

Maintains Buy with a target price of ₹760 (previous ₹730)

Deleveraging remains the key re-rating catalyst; divestments, if any, could provide upside

EBITDA margin expected to gradually scale up to 22%-23% in the medium term

Management expects FY26 revenue/EBITDA growth of 4%-8%/10%-14% YOY

Net debt projected at 13,000cr by FY26 and ₹10,500cr by FY27, reducing D/E and net debt/EBITDA from 1x/4.6x in FY24 to 0.4x/1x by FY27

MS on Swiggy

OW, TP Rs 450

Swiggy’s board approved sale in Rapido for Rs24bn; strengthening its balance sheet & in line with management commentary

Board also approved Swiggy transferring its Instamart business into a wholly owned step down subsidiary on a slump sale basis.

As per co, this proposed transfer would help create an efficient and more focused entity for the quick commerce business

Nomura on Swiggy

Buy, TP Rs 550

Monetises Rapido investment to raise Rs 24bn

Corporate restructuring of ownership in Instamart (Q com) biz

Believe restructuring is a step in direction of enabling Instamart to own inventory in its Quick com business once Swiggy becomes an Indian Owned & Controlled Company (IOCC) when its domestic shareholding crosses 51%

Macquarie on Swiggy

U-P, TP Rs 285

Rapido stake-sale; Instamart slump sale

Swiggy had a net cash balance of about US$580mn ; Rapido stake sale shores up net cash balance to over US$850m

Believe slump sale of Instamart adds weight to view that external fund raises are required as est. an annual EBITDA loss of US$400-450mn in base case

For Food Delivery, presence of a new player with a lower commission structure model presents downside risk

Despite large TAM potential, our work suggests that the building blocks to support any meaningful fully accounted economic profit in the next 3 years are absent

CITI on IndusInd Bank

Sell. TP Rs 765

Management meet takeaways

1] Post CEO & CFO coming on board, bank now focuses on filling ED positions

2] Forward flows (particularly in MFI) to keep slippages elevated; stabilization/normalization anticipated in 2H

3] Credit cost contingent on accelerated write-off timing (amortized through the fiscal or one-time impairment

4] Weak vehicle finance demand, run-down in MFI to be offset by other retail segments growth, resumption in corporate growth

5] Rebuilding fee income will be key post reset to low base in 1Q

6] Efforts underway to curtail opex growth (2H costs to be below that of 1H).

With RoA/RoE reset lower at 0.5%/4%, flawless execution and strategic roadmap under new leadership will be key

Macquarie on Marico

O-P, TP Rs 820

Marico sees diversification through digital brands/ foods scale up, premiumisation-led growth in international and GST cut aiding hair oils growth.

It is confident on digital portfolio FY27 exit ARR reaching 2.5x FY24 levels and reiterated target of double-digit Ebitda margin in FY27.

See resultant margin resilience & belief of GST cut-led faster recovery in hair oils structurally aiding medium-term growth outlook.

Kotak Inst Eqt on Adani Ports

Buy, TP raised to Rs 1900

Take note of strong pace of value addition in its recently commissioned assets in transshipment East Coast acquisitions

Anticipate strong volume growth in two-thirds of APSEZ’s port portfolio, comprising container portfolio of Mundra, East Coast assets & transshipment terminals, reflected in 16%/17% EBITDA/PAT CAGRs over FY2025-28

Stock trades at 14.5X 1-yr fwd EV/EBITDA

Kotak Inst Eqt on Indus Tower

Buy, TP Rs 400

View recently announced African foray by Indus Towers favorably.

Africa offers high growth opportunity, both organic and inorganic, given significant network/subscriber under-penetration and fragmental market unlike India.

High tenancy with Airtel Africa (AAF) being the anchor tenant and partial linkage to US$ in rental terms to hedge currency risk would make tower economics favorable

Expect investments in initial years to be measured

MS on India Financials

22 September 2025 marked the start of the festival of Navratri as well the festive season sales of e-commerce giants Amazon and Flipkart

Analyzed the credit card spending data from the RBI for 22 September (Rs12,950 cr)

A Monday typically includes weekend spending spillovers

Combining Sunday and Monday spending, compute a week-on-week increase of 54% for 22 September 2025

MS on AB Fashion

Recommendation Overweight; Target Price ₹131

Believe the worst in terms of Pantaloons’ performance is behind us

Expect growth and profitability to improve, former ve, with the latter preceding the former

At a company level, expect ABFRL to be EBITDA positive (post rent) in FY28

See a valuation re-rating opportunity, with limited downside

MOSL on Aditya Birla Fashion

TP Rs 100 vs Rs 85 (maintain Neutral)

Improved execution remains key to a sustained rerating

Pantaloons: Retail identity revamp underway; focus on improving margins

OWND!: Rebranding of Style-Up to cater to Gen Z

Ethnics: Profitability to improve with the reduction in TCNS losses

TMRW: Separate fundraising to accelerate growth and fund acquisitions

Luxury retail: Profitable and growing portfolio of premium high-end brands

Raise FY26-27E revenue by 5-8%, driven by higher growth in TMRW, luxury retail, and OWND!

FY26/27E EBITDA increases 12%/26%

Expect ABFRL to remain in losses over FY25-28, due to the drag from TMRW

Citi on Consumer

All Eyes on Demand Uptick Post GST Rate Cuts – F&B Benefits More

Companies to offer discounts to reduce risk of destocking

Elasticity of demand may vary across categories

Remain selective – prefer Britannia, Varun Beverages, Godrej Consumer

MS on HCL Tech

Recommendation Equalweight; Target Price ₹1680

Large deal win announced

HCL had indicated slipping of closure of couple of large deals into Q2

In this context, the deal should bring some comfort and confidence for their Q2 deal TCV numbers

MOSL on Sri Lotus Developers and Realty

Initiating Coverage, TP Rs 250, Buy Rating

Proxy to Mumbai’s redevelopment story

Niche play in the luxury redevelopment space with a proven track record

Asset-light model enables rapid scaling

Robust collections and a healthy margin to generate a strong surplus

Expects to clock a presales CAGR of 129% over FY25-28

Expected to post a 58% CAGR in revenue over FY25-28, reaching INR21.6b by FY28

EBITDA is expected to grow at a 52% CAGR and reach INR10.2b by FY28 with a 47% margin

Company is expected to achieve a PAT of INR7.7b by FY28, reflecting a 50% CAGR over FY25-28

ROE and ROCE are expected to remain above 26% by FY28

BofA on Infosys

Recommendation Buy; Target Price ₹1780

A significant cash build on books is dilutive for return ratios

Post the buyback program, company’s cash chest appears adequate

Given the capital strategy, think buybacks are essential to meet the target

Jefferies on Sun Pharma

Recommendation Buy; Target Price ₹2070

Sun Pharma focuses on volume growth and differentiated products in India

GLP seen as a key opportunity

Specialty business drove margin gains in past 5 years