Share Market Highlights 25 September 2025: Stock markets fall for 5th day; Sensex dives 556 points, Nifty settles below 25,000

Kotak Inst Eqt on Cochin Shipyard

Sell, TP Rs 860

Govt announced a Rs700 bn package to boost domestic shipbuilding through capital support, legal reforms and demand aggregation from O&G PSUs

This, coupled with CSL’s MoU with HD KSOE for commercial vessel construction, could be a twin catalyst for CSL’s shipbuilding ambitions.

However, execution remains a key risk, especially given that there is a limited impact of SFAP 2016 & scaling-up of shipbuilding is complex and capital intensive

As both developments are in preliminary stage, have not factored in any upside to est.

Kotak Inst Eqt on Cyient

Reduce, TP Rs 1180

Management meet key highlights

Organization is being aligned with a revamped strategy under the new CEO

Client behavior remains unchanged, despite reduced macro uncertainty

Transportation segment will continue momentum, led by aerospace

Communications vertical will fare better than past year, while energy vertical remains weak in near term

MOSL on PSU Banks

PSBs well poised to sustain RoA at ~1%

Healthy liquidity, funding profile to support stable credit growth

PSBs’ credit market share to decline at milder pace vs. 200bp annual fall

Navigating NIM pressures with strategic rebalancing; pace of fall to ease

Bond gains provide crucial earnings support; mix in other income rises to 22-40%

Top picks: SBI & PNB

INBK stands out among mid-sized banks

Neutral on BOB & UNBK

Incred on Piramal Pharma

Initiate ADD, TP Rs 276

A diversified three-engine model comprising CDMO, CHG, & PCH businesses that blends high-growth outsourcing with steady, defensive cash flow.

Differentiation comes from end-to-end CDMO depth in complex modalities (ADCs/HPAPIs/peptides) & multi-region footprint with US capacity expansion.

CHG is a cash-rich, defensible franchise

HSBC on Consumer

See consumer sector recovering from here driven by a favourable base, income tax cuts, and GST rate reductions

Factor in GST cuts & revise estimates; BRIT & NEST see highest increase of c5% in FY27 EPS

Upgrade BRIT to Hold, TP raised to Rs 6140

Upgrade NEST to Hold, TP raised to Rs 1270

Preferred names – Marico, BUY – TP Rs 870 & GCPL, BUY – TP Rs 1470

CITI on RBL BK

Buy, TP Rs 300

Management meet takeaways

1] NIMs bottomed out in 1Q; improvement anticipated 2Q onwards

2] Advances growth is accelerating led by secured retail & commercial banking, while MFI disbursements now outpace repayments, eliminating further portfolio run-down concerns

3] Stress in JLG subsides; credit card taking longer to normalize

4] Core fee income – building traction from 1Q base

5] Cost control initiatives currently underway; impact to become discernible 3Q onwards

Close 90D+ catalyst watch, retaining a positive view on steady RoA improvement over next 4-6 quarters

MS on Sun Pharma

OW, TP Rs 1948

In India, co should outpace IPM, led by chronic-heavy portfolio, volume growth, new launches, and stronger prescriber engagement.

Sun is preparing for a Day-1 entry in India’s Semaglutide (GLP-1 injectable) market.

Leqselvi shows strong early uptake, Ilumya anchors growth with PsA filing by 2025, and Unloxcyt’s US launch in H2F26 marks the next scale-up

Co remains active in scouting Phase II/ III assets for acquisition to further scale the Specialty portfolio.

Sun’s Specialty portfolio has minimal MFN exposure, as rules target Medicaid where Sun has minimum exposure.

Nomura on Glenmark Pharma

Neutral, TP Rs 1500

Announced an in-licensing agreement with Hengrui Pharma for Trastuzumab Rezetecan, an oncology ADC (antibody drug conjugate) drug

Under the agreement, Glenmark will obtain exclusive rights to develop & commercialise product largely in India & select emerging markets

As part of agreement, Glenmark shall make an upfront payment of $18mn

Hengrui is also eligible for regulatory & commercial milestone payout of up to $1.1bn

Think Trastuzumab Rezetecan will be largest contributor to co’s target to get to $350-400m in innovation drug revenues in next 5-7 years.

CLSA on HAL

O-P, TP Rs 5436

Reached an important milestone with the first flight of the 13th LCA Mk 1A aircraft this week vs the 12 it aimed to deliver in FY26, putting to rest any concerns regarding its role in delay

GE has promised to deliver 12 engines for 2025 and 20 in 2026, which is key for final delivery of aircraft

Start of delivery of the first two fully armed Mk 1As is key to HAL winning its repeat order worth Rs670bn (US$7.8bn), which should add 35% to its US$22bn backlog.

Its decadal pipeline remains healthy at US$54bn

CITI On SBI

Resume Buy, TP Rs 1050

For FY26-27E continue to build in loan growth of 13-14% yoy, calc.

NIMs on IEA at 2.8-2.9% and stable credit cost of 40-45bps.

As a result, expect it to deliver ROA of 1% and ROE of 14-15% over FY26-27E

SBI is preferred pick within PSU banks

Macquarie on Financials

Banks face two issues this quarter: Sharp margin compression and weak loan growth. YES Bank stake sale could provide some cushion.

Credit costs to remain elevated. Earnings growth for most banks will remain pretty muted and in some cases may decline.

Tactical pair trades for 2QFY26

1) Long HDFCB/ICICI; short IIB

2) Long PFC/REC; short MMFS

3) Long AB Capital; short SBI Cards

GS on Tata Cons

Buy, TP Rs 1290 (Earlier TP Rs1270)

Improved visibility of margin recovery driven by lower tea prices

Relatively limited GST transition disruptions

Core business growth likely to improve, growth segments expected to bounce back after a weak June quarter

Non-branded margins aided by a bounce back in coffee prices

UBS on Dixon Tech

Upgrade to Buy, TP Raised to Rs 23000

Co is poised for next growth phase via backward integration into non-semiconductor smartphone components such as displays & camera modules, enclosures & batteries

This could drive a 110bp EBITDA margin improvement by FY28E despite phase-out of mobile PLI by FY26

Expect $11bn rev by FY28E (2.5x in FY25) & Co will have strong growth levers beyond FY28E

Jefferies on Radico Khaitan

Recommendation Buy; Target Price ₹3590

Growth momentum remains strong for Radico after a stellar Q1

Limited salience in Maharashtra (tax hike) and several growth levers firing on all cylinders

Should also help improve profitability, with inflation manageable across key inputs

Balance sheet should turn net cash by FY27

CLSA on Bharti Airtel

Recommendation Outperform; Target Price ₹2035

Nxtra to gain from data centre policy

Nxtra plans to double capacity to 400MW

Nxtra is a part of Bharti’s enterprise business, which is 15% of India operations as mobile business dominates

Although Nxtra is mere c10% of Airtel Business, it is growing rapidly

Citi on India Economics

October MPC: A Dovish Tilt Expected with a Marginal Bias for an Outright Cut

Space for a more dovish tilt in the October MPC has opened up

See either an “insurance” rate cut to protect against the downside growth risks

Or a “dovish pause” with an outright assurance to act soon if required

Have a marginal bias that the RBI would opt for the “insurance” rate cut view

Investec on ICICI Bank

Recommendation Buy ; Target Price ₹ 1745

Management anticipates a gradual pick up in loan growth

NIM compression is expected to be milder than anticipated

Funding costs have responded well to repo rate cuts

Bank remains selective in the aggressively priced wholesale lending segment

Avendus Spark on Niva Bupa

Recommendation Add; Target Price ₹90

Reported GDPI growth to be under pressure due to 1/N; however, it should remain strong on N basis

Higher exposure to benefit-based health or diversified book makes Niva Bupa GDPI growth less volatile

Calibrated porting should aid better growth

Jefferies India Strategy

India is now a consensus Underweight for foreign investors

Given the sharp underperformance YTD, the key focus is identifying bottom-up ideas to lower the Underweight

Corporate India’s optimism on GST cuts driving consumption was visible, though partially priced-in

Govt. seems intent on utilizing tariff-driven concerns as a reform driver

Believe a near-term market bounce is likely on cards, though the potential equity supply tempers 12-month outlook

Incred on Cement

Channel check showed cement industry passing on GST cut benefit

Prices cut by Rs 10-30/bag; new rates to be implemented nationwide in a week

Experts feel that it should contribute positively in the long run by improving affordability and boosting the demand sentiment post festive season

Price hike capped until mid-Oct 2025 due to the strong festive season and global pet-coke price rise limiting the industry’s ability to pass on cost pressure

MOSL ON GLAND PHARMA

Maintains Buy on Gland Pharma with a target price of Rs2,340

Performance revival to be driven by niche US approvals and higher-value offerings from Cenexi sites

Cenexi upgrades with enhanced capabilities and equipment expected to boost revenue and profitability

Earnings projected to grow at 27% CAR over FY25-27

MOSL values Gland at 33x 12M forward earnings (20% discount to its 10-year average)