Share Market Highlights 3 December 2025: Sensex, Nifty end flat; rupee hits record closing low

BofA Sec on PB Fin

Neutral, TP Rs 1980

Mgmt see no GST-led negative impact on health & term: some impact on savings biz, but working to address in next 3-6 months

Most insurer contracts on COR; With lower opex & better claims ratio, PB placed better to negotiate with insurance companies

PB focused on driving healthy growth; Inside we have also captured the latest commentary from listed insurers around GST cuts

BoFA Sec on Ashok Leyand

Buy TP Raised to Rs 180

MHCV mid-single digit grwth guide for F26. Fundamentals (truck rental, fleet age) favorable. High Ton segments yet to recover

Margin focus intact. Pricing, cost controls and non-truck revenue to drive 50-60bps delta in FY26. Mid-term target of 15%

Replacement cycle taking longer on structural changes. Growth not broad based yet.

Emkay on Ipca Laboratories

Initiate BUY; Target: Rs1700

Likely to defy skeptics yet again

Strength of Ipca’s domestic franchise (second highest market share gain in IPM over last 3 years among top 20 listed players) & co’s potential for strong medium-term margin expansion are well acknowledged, with its domestic portfolio construct likely to remain a driver of sustained outperformance vs peers.

Jefferies on Pharma

Revise project pipeline for Indian CDMOs & find most companies are working on sizable new projects.

Among new wins, believe Sai has added most meaningful projects (10-20% of CDMO FY28 sales), followed by Piramal (10%) & Divi’s (~3%)

Based on project pipeline, try to build sales bridge for CDMO revenue & find that Sai and Divi’s have the 100% revenue visibility on FY28 estimates & thus are also top picks

Jefferies on Industrials

Central govt capex declined 28% YoY in Oct 2025 while YTD capex is still up 32% YoY vs budget estimate (BE) of 7% YoY growth.

This implies capex can decline 14% YoY over the balance 5 months & still meet FY26 BE

Watch capex ex-telecom and Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), which is also up 31% YoY YTD vs 6% BE.

YTD capex is tracking higher in road, rail and defence

Believe govt intent on capex spend will be monitored closely for industrial stocks

Jefferies on Chalet Hotels

Buy, TP Rs 1070

Analyst meet takeaways

Reaffirmed its metro dominance at its analyst meet, citing institutional partnerships, mixed-use expertise & industry-leading execution.

Chalet is focused on “Big Box” city assets and leisure properties, complemented by selective commercial RE.

Since listing, Chalet has added 1,050+ keys and has 1,180 in pipeline.

It will balance brand tie-ups with a selective rollout of ATHIVA, its new upper-upscale brand tailored to each property’s potential.

Jefferies on Cement

Cement px was lower ~0-0.5% MoM in Nov (+3% YoY); YTD FY26 px higher ~5% YoY vs our FY26 est of +4% YoY

QTD avg is soft at 1.5-2% QoQ decline, given cap on NT pricing inc due to new GST rollout – some checks suggest pricing may improve in 4Q with better demand

Do build 4Q px recovery (higher ~1.5-2% QoQ) amid demand recovery.

Despite NT disappointment, remain constructive on space on a 12-basis; like UTCEM, ACEM, JKCE

Emkay Channel Check – Cement

November demand was flat to low single-digit due to labour shortages & unseasonal rains

Green shoots seen in last 7–10 days of November

Price hike likely by January 2026

Fuel prices remain range-bound

Recent correction has made risk-reward favourable

Street has largely priced in soft demand & weak pricing

Top picks maintained: – UltraTech Cement, Shree Cement (TP ₹33,000), JK Cement (TP ₹6,900), Star Cement (TP ₹280)

ACC: SELL, TP ₹1,600

CLSA on Hindalco

O-P, TP Raised to Rs 965

Roadshow takeaways

Estimate, even at an LME of US$2,600 (spot US$2,850), ongoing capacity & margin expansion initiatives could double Ebitda in next five years, with significant FCF generation in back half.

In near term, concerns at Novelis (capex escalation & fire in a plant) are likely to be offset by strong aluminium price outlook.

Management was constructive on aluminium price outlook.

Capacity addition in Indonesia (as China approaches its ceiling of 45mt) could face challenges on power availability.

RoW capacities face concerns on power availability/cost with diversion towards AI/datacentres.

Demand, on the other hand, is resilient.

For 4Q26/FY27, Hindalco has hedged 49%/10% of its aluminium exposure at US$2,760/2,800/T

CITI on HDFC AMC

Upgrade to Neutral from sell, TP raised to Rs 2850

Upgrade on

1)Sustained strength in performance across most key actively-managed high-yielding categories

2)Elevated focus on scaling up non-MF

3)Limited visibility of any near-term regulatory overhang

Elevated competitive pressure and reducing distribution moats for incumbents, remain key concerns, nevertheless

CITI on RIL

Buy, TP Raised to Rs 1805

Had recently raised target FY27E EV/EBITDA multiple for Bharti a notch (from 13x to 14x), which now reflect for Jio too, which leads to an increase in EV for latter from $135bn to $145bn

Additionally, now explicitly add Rs63/sh as contribution to SOTP for RIL’s 84% stake in Reliance Consumer Products (RCPL) following completion its demerger from Reliance Retail Ventures (RRVL)

RIL remains top pick in India oil & gas universe

CITI on Indus Tower

High conviction Buy, TP Rs 500

India’s Minister of Communications, Mr. Jyotiraditya Scindia provided an optimistic update on the Supreme Court’s ruling last month regarding AGR relief for Voda Idea.

Key highlights

1) Mr. Scindia is hopeful that the contours of the relief package for VI will be finalised within a few weeks, aiming for year-end completion.

2) He noted that excluding gov’t dues, VI’s leverage is very low; AGR relief coupled with robust cash flows should, therefore, enable it to raise new debt financing.

3) He clarified that the SC’s order applies solely to VI.

These statements should, in our view, instill confidence and alleviate uncertainty surrounding the timing & contours of the govt’s relief package for VI

Believe this offers a compelling buying opportunity for Indus.

Macquarie on ITC

O-P, TP Rs 500

Believe concerns on high per-stick taxes shared in draft excise document are misplaced, as such rates represent cap & not applicable rates

See potential moderation in discounting post move to GST as % of retail price, & moderation in leaf tobacco costs driving 10%+ FY27E cig EBIT growth.

Raise EPS/TP 2%/4% to factor these tailwinds.

Believe re-rating needs clarity that cigarette tax will not increase materially post levy of new cess.

Macquarie on Tata Com

O-P TP Rs 2210

Co acquired a 51% stake in Commotion Inc, an AInative Enterprise SaaS platform with operations in US & India, in an all-cash deal (US$25.5m

TCOM’s Digital portfolio accounted for c.40% of group revenue in FY25, and within this its Customer Interaction Suite (CIS) accounted for ~50%.

CIS segment revenue contribution has increased in past two years with US$250mn acquisition of CPaaS platform Kaleyra in 2023

TCOM has called out its CIS segment as one of its five key strategic bets

Kotak Inst Eqt on Pidilite

ADD, TP Rs 1650

NDR Takeaways

PIDI is confident of sustaining 10% UVG, supported by strong DD growth momentum in tile adhesives and the B2B segment while also maintaining 23-24% EBITDA margins

initiatives underway to unlock new growth engines—consumer portfolio expansion, PPS scale-up and entry into consumer electronics adhesives (Rs10 bn potential sales)—could improve UVG CAGR by 150 bps.

Antique on Doms Ind

Initiate with Buy, TP Rs3,250

Positioned for the next leg of growth

Capacity bottleneck addressed through greenfield capex

Huge scope for distribution expansion

EBITDA and return ratios likely to remain in the guided range

BofA on Consumer

Premiumization, wallet shift – themes to watch for future

Jewellery continues to shine

Resilience of premium alcobevs is noteworthy

Luxury / premium hospitality segment is a key beneficiary

Staples cos sharpening focus on premium segments

Rising incomes and shift in wallet share key themes to watch for future

JPMorgan on Hotel Sector

Oct 2025 – Seasonality showing up, strong Q3 in sight

Industry trends for Oct reflect seasonality benefits kicking in

Key business and leisure destinations have reported healthy rate growth

Industry’s signed inventory is ~4.2x of new additions in FY26

Domestic trends offsetting international softness

Investec on SBFC Finance

BUY, TP Rs150

SBFC has built a niche in secured MSME finance

Geographically diversified network helps smooth out state-level volatility

Remains focused on cost efficiency, targeting a reduction in its cost-to-income ratio to below 30% over the next 3-4 years

JPMorgan on AC Industry

Overall demand trends have lagged expectations amidst challenging weather conditions

Festive uptick was not very encouraging either

All eyes are now on pre-season purchases starting end Q3 and during Q4

Channel inventory levels are still high driving working capital pressures at the dealer end

Build-up for the season will be a key monitorable

Price hikes in high single digit due to new energy rating norms will likely be offset by GST benefits