Share Market Highlights 30th December 2025: Sensex, Nifty close marginally lower amid thin year-end trading, foreign fund outflows weigh

Emkay on Lenskart

Initiation – BUY, TP ₹525

Clear category leader in a structurally growing USD 9bn eyewear market; ~13% industry CAGR with strong tailwinds from GST cuts and fashionisation.

Best-in-class unit economics (sub-1 year payback, ~64% GM) and scalable tech-led model support rapid expansion and margin compounding.

Multiple optionalities (vision care, audiology, smart eyewear) and ~₹40 bn net cash provide long runway for growth

Avendus on Home Textile

Macro developments such as tariff normalization & progress of free trade agreements are key monitorables

Indian players repositioning within the value chain through diversification, branding and expansion into adjacent categories to sustain growth

Falling US imports reflect demand moderation & inventory rationalisation, which could weigh on near-term volumes & earnings but this could be cyclical rather than structural

EBITDA margins for large players are closely linked to export incentives, with underlying profitability excluding incentives being materially lower

Initiate Buy on Indo Count – TP Rs 348 ( on its ability to drive growth through trade-driven share gains, channel/geographical diversification & expansion into adjacent categories

Initiate reduce on Welspun Living – TP Rs 135

MS on Titan

OW, TP Rs 4062

Tanishq launched the Tanishq Diamonds Expertise Centre in its first store in Mumbai

Store is equipped with machines that aid in-store diamond evaluation, including detecting natural vs. lab-grown diamonds

SynthDetect machine tests the diamond via a four-step process (live view, fluorescence 1 and 2, and phosphorescence), with a transparent evaluation in front of customers

Although this will be a gradual launch across the store network, we believe the initiative will further strengthen the trust associated with the Tanishq brand

Nuvama on Titan

Buy, TP Rs 4672

Attended inaugural beYon store launch—House of Titan’s new venture.

Key highlights:

i) The collection features LGDs (VS clarity, F-G colour) set in typically 14K and 18K gold.

ii) Targeted at adornment focused daily and casual wear with cuts being the main differentiator.

iii) No buyback policy is there for lab-grown diamonds.

iv) Making charges range from INR1,800–2,000 per gram.

Purchases include a proprietary in-house certificate documenting diamond specifications

Investec on Petronet LNG

Buy, TP Rs 400

Top pick for 2026

Global LNG supply is set to rise sharply in 2026 (7% or 40 bcm), fastest growth since 2019

This surge — driven primarily by US, Canada, Qatar, and African producers –far exceeds demand growth and keeps spot prices under pressure

This benign pricing environment comes at an opportune time for India, where LNG imports fell in FY25 due to temporary factors that are now stabilizing.

Lower spot prices should help revive price-sensitive industrial demand from early 2026.

Against this backdrop, PLNG is strategically well positioned: its Dahej expansion to 22.5mmtpa is complete, its contracted volumes provide strong downside protection, and superior connectivity should help capture incremental spot volumes as prices soften.

After an 18% correction over the past year on cyclical import weakness, PLNG now trades below its historical valuation band, offering an attractive entry point.

A prolonged global LNG glut likely to structurally lift India’s LNG imports over the next 3–5 years, driving earnings growth and valuation re-rating

MS on Shriram Fin

OW, TP Rs 925

CARE Ratings upgrades longterm credit rating to AAA

Will watch for potential actions from other rating agencies as well

These could result in a meaningful reduction in borrowing costs for Shriram & catalyze higher long-term loan growth & better loan spreads

CLSA on Dixon Tech

O-P, TP cut to Rs 15800 from Rs 18800

Dixon’s near-term growth trajectory looks clouded given tapering smartphone sales in India and market share losses for its key customers

Expect largely flat YoY top-line growth in 3Q (and a QoQ decline), paving way for a FY26 guidance cut

Interactions with investors also indicate concerns around regulatory approvals, which will be key to watch

That said, remain constructive on medium term growth, & hence despite cuts to FY26-27CL earnings, FY28CL EPS is largely unchanged

CLSA on India Economics

An Eventful end to 2025

Govt passes important bills and RBI injects liquidity

Budget constrains expected to be eased for Central Government

10-year yield bonds expected to be brought down towards 6.5% vs peak of 6.65%

Above moves could amount to 0.2% of GDP

Nomura on IIP

Pick up in IP growth in November above market expectation

Capital and Infra goods have performed better than consumer goods industries

Labour intensive sectors at eye of Trump tariff storm continue to struggle

Outperformance driven computers, electronics and transportation

Positive on India’s economic outlook for FY27

CLSA on IIP

IIP growth at 25-month high at 6.7% YoY vs expectations of 3.6% YoY (In Nov)

Uptick in growth has been broad based with manufacturing being a key driver

IIP growth will be above 4% YoY for Q3FY26-higher than expectations

Risks include global uncertainty and shrinking government expenditure

Mild surprise if India-US trade deal is revived

Revision of the index is on cards for next year

GS on Defence

DAC approved proposals worth ₹79,000 cr, covering all three armed forces

Focus areas: Proposals address key white spaces such as ammunition and radar/electronics, and include new-age equipment

Cumulative Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) in FY26 stands at ₹3.3 tn, close to the all-time high of ₹3.8 tn in FY24

Believe the steep trajectory of AoNs since FY23 implies that the pace of ordering is likely to accelerate

Expect Solar Industries, Bharat Electronics and Bharat Dynamics to be the key beneficiaries, while trickle-down benefits are likely to accrue for Astra Microwave and Data Patterns as well

MOSL on Defence

DAC clears ₹79,000 cr in capital acquisition proposals in the winter session

FY26 YTD approvals at ~₹3.3 tn, nearly 2× the defence capital outlay of ₹1.8 tn

Approvals cover munitions, missiles, air defence, surveillance, training systems and naval platforms

Though AoNs don’t mean immediate orders, the scale de-risks order inflows for defence PSUs and select private players over the next 2–4 years

Maintain positive stance on:

BHE (CMP: ₹393 | TP: ₹500)

HAL (CMP: ₹4,377 | TP: ₹5,800)

BDL (CMP: ₹1,473 | TP: ₹2,000)

AMPL (CMP: ₹979 | TP: ₹1,100)

Remain Neutral on Zen Technologies (CMP: ₹1,386 | TP: ₹1,400)

MS on Cholamandalam Investment

Maintain Equal Weight rating and hike target price to ₹1,640 (vs ₹1,540)

EPS estimates increased by 0.1% for FY26, 0.4% for FY27, and 0.7% for FY28

Upgrades driven mainly by higher loan growth assumptions

FY25–28 loan CAGR revised to 19.2% from 18.5%

Improvement largely reflects stronger growth in the vehicle finance segment

MS on Muthoot Finance

Rating: Overweight; Target price: ₹4,385 (earlier ₹4,050)

Bull-case price: ₹7,150 (earlier ₹6,620)

Bear-case price: ₹2,835 (earlier ₹2,620)

EPS estimates raised – FY26 by 0.5%, FY27 by 5.2%, FY28 by 5.3%, driven by higher loan growth

Loan growth estimated at 50% YoY in FY26 (earlier 43%) on persistently high gold prices

Gold loan growth seen at 17.5% QoQ in 3Q

MOSL on Indigo Paints

Maintain Buy; target price raised to ₹1,450 (from ₹1,400)

Growth outlook improving; competitive pressure easing, says management

Dealer network expansion focused on Tier-1 & Tier-2 cities

Pricing stable; no near-term hikes expected

FY27 revenue growth seen at 15–20%; model ~14% CAGR (FY26–28E)

EBITDA margins seen at ~18–19% in FY27–28

EBITDA/PAT CAGR estimated at 16% / 18% over FY26–28E

MOSL on Ajanta Pharma

Maintain Buy with target price of ₹3,145

AJP’s GLP-1 strategy builds the next growth engine through partnerships

Strong cash surplus enables bolt-on acquisitions for branded generics

Acquired brands have scaled meaningfully over the past 12 months

Expected FY26–28E CAGR: Revenue 11%, EBITDA 15%, PAT 16%

Earnings to reach ₹6,500 cr revenue / ₹1,900 cr EBITDA / ₹1,400 cr PAT

Semaglutide opportunity in Asia & Africa seen at $25–30 mn annual sales from 2HFY28

High profitability: ~70% gross margin, 50–55% EBITDA margin, driving incremental gains