Share Market Today Live Updates 7 August 2025: Sensex sinks nearly 700 points after trump tariff move; Nifty below 24,400

Citi on US Tariffs on India

US Imposes Additional 25% Tariffs, But Leaves 21-Day Space for Negotiations

This would take weighted average US tariffs to 42.4% from 13.2% during pause period and 2.7% pre-2025

Linear model suggests 0.6-0.8 percentage points downside risk to annual growth

Actual impact could be higher as most exports could become unviable at this tariff rate

Nomura on US Tariffs on India

Short-term growth risks intensify

US accounts for ~18% of total exports and ~2.2% of GDP in FY25

If effective, the steep 50% tariff would be similar to a trade embargo, and will lead to a sudden stop in affected export products

Lower value addition and thinner margins across a number of industries could jeopardise operations

BofA on US Tariffs On India

Exploring the potential fallout of India ceasing Russian oil imports

Russia constituted 10.4% of the global crude oil supply in CY24 with India purchasing 13-18% of total Russian supply

Overall, a reduction/discontinuation in crude procurement from Russia could be negative for OMCs and positive for upstream E&P players

Given smaller discounts in recent months, the macro impact is likely to contained

Jefferies on US Tariffs On India

US has imposed additional 25% tariffs

Direct financial cost to India of replacing Russian Oil is < 15 bps of GDP

Flattish Oil markets over past week imply good supplies exist

Believe the political fallout of US asks on dairy & agri still remain the key stumbling block

Remain hopeful of an eventual trade deal with the US

GS on Bajaj Auto

Buy, TP Rs 9500

Q1 in-line

Rare Earth shortages are likely to impact E2W & E3W sales with Bajaj expecting 50-60%/70-80% planned production for E2W / E3W in Sept qtr

Resolution of shortages is expected by FY26 end

Going fwd, expect margin to stay flat

CITI On Bajaj Auto

Sell, TP Rs 7300

1Q in line with est.

Outlook +ve driven by healthy export momentum & revival in domestic demand in 2H

Bajaj’s domestic motorcycle market share has seen a gradual decline

Competition in 125cc segment is intensifying

Bernstein on Bajaj Auto

O-P, TP Rs 11000

Q1 reaffirms its positioning as a stable business, that offers strong downside protection in a volatile demand environment

Headline performance was largely in line, with revenue, EBITDA, & PAT exceeding expectations by 2–4%

Bernstein on Trent

O-P, TP Rs 6500

Significant disappointment on rev growth

Added 27% stores between 1Q25 & 1Q26

Due to larger new stores, this translated to 38% SQFT area addition

However, rev growth (standalone) disappointed at 20% for 1Q26 (vs. 57% for 1Q25)

CITI on Trent

Rating: Maintain Buy; Target Price: Cut to ₹7,150 from ₹7,600

Q1 Highlights:

While revenue growth slowed down (20% YoY; 36% CAGR vs pre-covid), it is still ahead of other discretionary players

LFL moderated to low-single digit (mid-single digit in 4QFY25), yet profitability surprised +vely driven by lower opex

Cost savings from reversal of inventory provisioning and reduced employee expenses

Store expansion pace muted, consistent with typical Q1 trend

Avendus on Trent

Avendus downgrades Trent to Reduce; TP cut to ₹5,000 from ₹5,650

FY26 may see a consolidation phase

Growth to slow, though remains healthy

Muted macros may cap market cap near ₹2 lakh cr

Revenue cut by 4% (FY26), 6% (FY27)

EBITDA margin steady at ~17-18%

Valuation at 65x PE seen as stretched

Risk-reward now unattractive

MOSL on Trent

MOSL maintains ‘Buy’ on Trent; TP revised to ₹6,400 from 6,600

Margin expansion surprises despite slower growth

FY26-27 EBITDA estimates unchanged.

PAT cut by 1-5% on higher depreciation

Building in 20%/18%/16% CAGR for Selin revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25-28

Revenue growth acceleration seen as key trigger

Antique on Bharti Airtel

Rating: Maintain Buy; Target Price: Raised to ₹2,222 from ₹2,100

Q1 results in-line with expectations

FY26 subscriber estimate cut by 1%, ARPU unchanged

FY26/27 earnings remain steady

Key trigger: Next tariff hike likely in Q1FY27

Lower wireless capex expected to improve FCF and RoE (>20%)

TP revised using DCF model rolled forward to 1HFY28

MOSL on Bharti Airtel

MOSL maintains ‘Buy’ on Bharti Airtel; TP raised to ₹2,285 from ₹2,200

Strong Q1 performance; robust FCF, net debt declines

Stock outperformed with +22% CYTD vs +4% Nifty-50

Valuation re-rated to ~12x FY27E EV/EBITDA

Further upside depends on sustained tariff hikes post-FY27

FY26-28E EBITDA raised by ~1%, led by AAF growth

Modeling 14%/17% CAGR in revenue/EBITDA over FY25-28

India wireless/homes valued at 13.4x DCF, DTH/Enterprise at 5x/10x

Indus & Airtel Africa stakes valued at 25% discount to TP/CMP

Avendus on Bharti Airtel

Avendus maintains ‘Reduce’ on Bharti Airtel; TP set at ₹1,370

India capex (ex-Indus) seen at 28,500/27,500 cr for FY26/27

Lower wireless capex, but higher spend on Homes & Enterprise

India FCF (ex-Indus) to rise from 23,300 cr (FY25) to ₹38,700 cr (FY27E)

VIL & BSNL capex ramp-up may cause some subscriber shift from top 2 telcos

SOTP-based TP of ₹1,375 values India biz at 10x FY27E EBITDA

Jefferies on Bharat Forge

Maintain Underperform with TP of Rs 950

Tough Q1; Export Outlook Weakens

Weak macro and rising US-India tariffs have significantly impacted export outlook

On the positive side, ramp-up of large Indian guns order should boost growth starting Q4

FY26-28E EPS are 9-14% below the Street

UBS on Bharat Forge

Sell, TP Rs 1175

Tariff overhang clouds near term outlook

Q1FY26: Weak show across businesses

Co incurred a Rs140mn impact (60bps) in Q1 due to tariff hike

Management indicated that discussions & negotiations are ongoing with key customers

CITI on Bharat Forge

Sell, TP Rs 870

1Q marginally above estimates, driven by slight revenue beat and lower tax rate.

Mgmt highlighted that uncertainty regarding US tariffs will continue to impact 2Q as well

Val @ 42/35x FY26/27 P/E offer little room for error

Avendus on Bharat Forge

Rating: Maintain Add; Target Price: ₹1,180

Standalone margins to remain stable ~28% through FY27E

Overseas margin gains driven by improved capacity utilisation

Forecasting 9% revenue CAGR and 12% EBITDA CAGR over FY25–27

Europe operations under restructuring to address underperformance

US tariff policy a key near-term risk for global auto demand

Backed by strong ₹9,500cr defence order book (as of June 2025)

Jefferies on Hero Moto

Maintain Underperform with TP of Rs 3330

Q1: Weak but Inline Quarter

PAT was flat YoY, boosted by higher financial income

Hero is seeing good traction in its electric mobility business

MOSL on Britannia

MOSL maintains ‘Neutral’ on Britannia; TP at ₹5,850

Revenue growth led by pricing, but margin pressure continues

Company open to price cuts if needed

EBITDA margin expected at 18-18.5% for FY26-28

EPS Estimates changed for FY26/FY27 EPS

Profitability may recover like previous inflation cycle

Awaiting stable demand in core categories

CLSA on BHEL

U-P, TP Rs 198

1Q: net loss rose 114% YoY with stock at 45x FY26CL PE

Operationally, expected to turnaround after two-years of backlog growth, but it disappointed, with a 114% rise in net losses, with 1Q execution up 4% YoY, missing consensus significantly

A bright spot was resurgence of fossil orders, given India’s focus on energy security, even as its thermal business orders peaked at 26.6GW in FY25

Bernstein on Bajaj Fin

U-P, TP Rs 640

STK has corrected 9% since announcement of its 1Q & see further downside risks ahead — sell dip

Risks are more fundamental than just few qtrs of elevated credit costs

Profitability pressures are building

While higher credit costs are a near-term concern, believe there are deeper structural issues that will constrain EPS growth going forward

GS on Pidilite

Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 3400

Q1: Earnings growth acceleration

Volume growth acceleration led by C&B

B2B segment also delivered eighth straight quarter of double digit volume growth

BofA on PVR Inox

Maintain Underperform with TP of Rs 945

Q1: EBITDA beat

In-line revenues but EBITDA beat led by good cost control

Seeing uptick in growth; Paring down net debt priority

Consistent good content pipeline key for re-rating

Jefferies on Prestige

Rating: Maintain Buy; Target Price: Raised to ₹1,850 from ₹1,700

Q1FY26 Highlights:

Strong operating performance

P&L beat; Residential revenues expected to rise

Excellent pre-sales momentum

Guidance maintained, but a beat appears likely

GS on Lupin

Maintain Neutral; Hike TP to Rs 2025 from Rs 1975

Q1: Strong quarter as expected

Buoyancy to continue for a foreseeable future

Remain Neutral on balanced risk-reward

Hike FY26-28E EPS estimates by 2-11% to factor in slightly faster topline growth and better margin development

MOSL on Lupin

Rating: Maintain Neutral; Target Price: Cut to ₹2,000 from ₹2,140

Earnings beat led by strong US market execution

FY26/27 earnings estimates raised by 5.5%/2%

Valuation: 22x 12M forward earnings

Forecasting 14%/16% EBITDA/PAT CAGR over FY25–27

FY26 EBITDA margin guided at 24–25%

Strong revenue growth outlook, but limited upside from current levels

Jefferies on Divis Lab

Maintain Hold; Hike TP to Rs 6750 from Rs 6200

Divi’s misses Q1, near-term outlook uncertain

API growth remains weak

Custom Synthesis near-term outlook uncertain

FY26 to be a heavy capex year

MOSL on Divi’s Labs

Rating: Maintain Neutral; Target Price: Cut to ₹6,320 from ₹7,045

Custom synthesis momentum steady; generics remain weak

High opex from new projects impacting profitability

FY26/27 earnings estimates cut by 8%/6%

Revenue expected to be back-ended over forecast horizon

Modeling 20% earnings CAGR over FY25–27

Antique on Divi’s Labs

Rating: Maintain Hold; Target Price: Unchanged at ₹6,575

Margins remain muted despite steady topline

Loss of exclusivity for sacubitril/valsartan in US poses near-term risk

FY26/27E EBITDA cut by 9%

Valuation rolled forward to 37x 1HFY28E EBITDA

Capex guidance for FY26 raised to ₹2,000cr (from ₹1,400cr)

Peptide opportunity needs clearer ramp-up visibility

UBS on PFC

Maintain Buy; Cut TP to Rs 580 from Rs 600

Beat in 1Q driven by writebacks

Growth beat; PAT beat driven by writebacks

Strong AUM growth of 15.7%, disbursement grew by 86% YoY

Writeback on DISCOM upgrades drove PAT beat

MOSL on PFC

Rating: Maintain Buy; Target Price: ₹490

Earnings in line, supported by provision write-backs

NII beat negated by higher forex losses

Loan book rose ~1% QoQ

FY26 loan growth guidance at 10–11% reaffirmed

Forecasting FY25–27 CAGR: Disbursements 10%, Advances 12%, PAT 8%

Expect RoA/RoE of 3%/18%, dividend yield ~4.4% in FY27E

Valuation: 0.9x FY27E P/BV, ~5x FY27E P/E