Shein’s long-awaited IPO only got harder to sell when tariffs bite

European rules are still enforced

And if the pressure of the United States was not enough, Shein flagged that Europe, about a third of its annual revenue, could have a similar or even greater impact after the European Union introduced a charge equal to about $ 3.50 for low-value e-commerce parcels this month, as part of a broader push by Brussels to close what it considers consumers to benefit directly from unfair shipping.

Shein’s own filing warned that disruptions in Europe could “match or exceed” what it experienced in the United States.

Zoom out, and the full picture is sobering. Shein’s net profit in 2025 is down 38.7%, to about $2.06 billion, even though revenue is up 8% to $37.1 billion, down significantly from 20.7% sales growth in 2024.

Meanwhile, Mr. Shein cleared the biggest remaining hurdle on July 10, when he received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a Hong Kong listing, targeting September or October this year. It is expected to raise about 3 billion US dollars worth of 40 billion to 50 billion US dollars.

That’s less than the $98.2 billion it ordered in the 2022 funding round, and even the $64 billion it was assigned in the next round in 2024. And there are reports that some investors have pushed for a further reduction in value to about 30 billion US dollars.

That repricing tells its own story. Shein’s IPO has now been rerouted three times, abandoned in New York amid US political scrutiny over supply chains and labor practices, stalled in London after regulations and reputations, and finally transferred to Hong Kong, where Beijing’s support offers a smoother, if smaller, route to the market.

Backers including Sequoia China, Tiger Global, General Atlantic and IDG Capital stood by their first real liquidity event, whatever the final price.

Analysts warn of further decline

But some analysts are openly skeptical that Shein can command popularity, or even hold its ground once it goes public. Shen Meng, a director at Beijing-based investment bank Chanson & Co, said he doubted Shein would achieve a meaningful increase in value in the Hong Kong IPO or in the secondary market compared to previous private equity rounds, arguing that the retailer would have been better off if it had completed a London or New York listing earlier.

Tony Huang of Deloitte’s China Capital Markets Services Group was more optimistic in a June note, pointing out that easing Middle East tensions and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz could give Hong Kong listings, including Shein’s, a headwind. But even that comes with the recognition that Shein’s own operational and geopolitical challenges remain very much a deciding factor in how investors ultimately settle on a price.

According to the filing, the proceeds from the listing will fund technology investments, including AI for demand forecasting, along with international expansion, Branding and corporate responsibility initiatives Shein.

Mr. Shein is pushing ahead with a plan to pump about 1.5 billion US dollars into the development of Guangdong’s freight hub to improve operational efficiency at a time when cross-border freight costs have become the biggest headache.