SpaceX shares are down 50% from post-IPO highs. History says that a $5,000 investment will be worth a lot in June 2027.

It has been less than two months since Elon Musk’s Space exploration technology (SPCX -1.36%) Complete the largest IPO in history. During this brief period, SpaceX shares opened at $150, reached a high of around $226 a few days later, and then dropped to $113. That represents a 50% drop from its post-IPO high. The question smart investors are asking is whether SpaceX’s return from orbit creates a buying opportunity, or if it’s time to step aside.

What made SpaceX start up?

SpaceX’s early frenzy was fueled by narrative and momentum. The company’s reusable rocket technology and expanding Starlink constellation have already positioned it as a dominant player in commercial spaceflight. Upstairs is SpaceX’s aggressive push into artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, including new capacity deals with hyperscalers such as Anthropic and. lettersof Google Cloud.

CEO Elon Musk’s personal brand spans all developments around SpaceX. His track record with Tesla and other business combinations have the power to transform conventional product improvements into market activities. Against this backdrop, it’s no surprise that investors and day traders have flocked to SpaceX stock, treating the company as a high-beta growth vehicle rather than a traditional industrial company.

Incessant media coverage of launch events, satellite deployments, and record valuations fueled interest from retail investors. In the first few weeks, SpaceX stock behaved less like a newly public aerospace company and more like a story fueled by hype.

Why is SpaceX stock a hole?

The sell-off in SpaceX stock is the product of normal post-IPO dilution combined with company-specific concerns. Early investors quickly booked profits when the initial pop-up collapsed, creating natural selling pressure. In addition, the cancellation of the recent launch is a strong reminder to the market that performance is never guaranteed.

At the same time, broader sentiment about AI stocks began to cool, making SpaceX’s premium valuation more difficult. The expiration of the lock-up agreement and the issuance of $25 billion in bonds have added to the sense that the outstanding supply of shares could increase in the coming months.

In the end, enthusiasm will disappear because the theory about investing in SpaceX is changing from a visionary story to one of concrete evidence of sustainable profitability and consistent performance.

1 year after the IPO of SpaceX, where will it be traded?

Let’s look at comparable IPOs and analyze how the stock’s trajectory can differ after their market launch.

By the end of 2020, Snowflake Opened at $245 and closed the first day of trading around $254. A year later, Snowflake was trading around $323, which means an increase of about 32% from the opening day print. Dear data analysis Palantir Technologies went public around the same time as Snowflake, which opened at $10 per share. Within a year, Palantir shares hovered around $24 — more than double their initial launch price.

Recently, Figma Opened at $85 and closed the first trading day around $115. Just a day later, the stock rose as high as $122. Almost a year later, Figma stock is only $20 – down 83% from its post-IPO peak.

Uber Follow a similar path to Figma. While the stock opened around $42, the stock has gained 64% within a year. Of course, part of the sell-off is due to concerns about the spread of COVID-19 and how it will affect the travel industry. Still, Uber managed to partially recover from the drop, settling near $32 – down about 24% from the open – as ongoing operating losses and competition concerns weighed on sentiment.

Applying these models to SpaceX leads to a different look. Upside tailwinds include the size of the connection covering corporate markets, space exploration, and AI. At the same time, there are obvious downside risks of continued cash burn, the possibility of additional launch declines, and a sustained rotation away from many high-growth names.

Given these variables, I think SpaceX stock could fall below $100 in the short term as the lock-up period expires and investors demand measurable progress from the company’s earnings report. While a return to the offer price of $135 next June is possible, many things will have to go right. This includes clean Starship flights that expand payload capacity, Starlink subscriber growth that begins to offset the company’s overall operating losses, and an investor base that rewards long-term AI initiatives.

Simple math shows that a $5,000 investment at SpaceX’s $113 share price would be worth less than $4,400 if the stock goes below $100 (down 12%) or about $5,900 if the stock hits $135 (up 18%). Given the wide range of possibilities, I think a more disciplined approach to investing in SpaceX is waiting for clearer evidence of performance progress. While a move to $135 would represent a strong rebound, fundamentals will still need to follow the original story.