SpaceX Cratering Below IPO Price, But 1 Wall Street Pro Thinks It Could 8X From Here

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• SPCX is down 41% from its post-IPO high of $113, but Raymond James is targeting $800, modeling SpaceX as a multi-trillion-dollar launch, Internet monopoly, and orbiter.

• Peers RKLB and ASTS are down about 21% and 18% in the past month, confirming a sector-wide grounding rather than a SpaceX-specific collapse.

• Act now: The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks – and SpaceX didn’t make the cut. Get a free name today.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is currently trading at $113.50, below the Wall Street consensus price target of $236.71, a 108.56% upside.

The space exploration technology just completed a $75 billion IPO in mid-June 2026 at a valuation of $1.77 trillion and landed with a bang a week later. Wall Street sees the launch of the company’s bridge, connectivity, and AI infrastructure through Falcon reusability, Starlink’s approximately 9,600 satellites and the newly acquired xAI unit.

One outlier stands out. Raymond James has set a price target of $800, positioning SpaceX as a future multi-trillion dollar monopoly across launch, broadband, and orbital computing.

The post-IPO slide left almost all buyers underwater

Gravity took hold almost immediately. SPCX price $ 135, increased more than $ 225 on the first day of trading, and fell from the June 15 peak of $ 192.50, the stock fell 41.04%, sliding 29.48% since the June 12 launch.

The two forces did the damage. The looming unlock described on r/wallstreetbets as “larger than the entire IPO float” gave short sellers $15.5 billion in profits. The Nasdaq-100 consolidation is met with more selling than buying, reinforcing the “run too far, too fast” narrative. Weekly Reddit sentiment was at 20.6, down heavily.

Basics increase the pressure. Polymarket cites the lack of demonstrated profitability as the reason why it has priced the S&P 500 aggregate this year at just 3.15%.

Take action now: The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks – and SpaceX didn’t make the cut. Get a free name today.

Why analysts refuse to cut their targets

With an indication of 108.56% in consensus and more with the numbers of Raymond James, the bull case needs real space. Management is stacked towards the bulls: 7 buy, 3 hold, and 1 sell across 11 analysts, with recent updates based on reiterations instead of downgrades.

Defiance ETFs CIO Sylvia Jablonski frames the disconnect directly: “SpaceX investors are missing the bigger picture”. Her theory is that the market is pricing SpaceX as an aerospace company rather than a “multi-platform infrastructure company involved in launch, communications, defense, and AI connectivity”. Starlink already serves customers in 164 countries, with direct-to-cell coverage in around 30.

Raymond James $800 case model Starship pushing payload cost-per-kilogram below any commercial or sovereign rival, Starlink dominating direct-to-cellular and mobile backhaul, and Starship deploying orbital compute infrastructure at scale. Anthropic’s $1.25 billion-a-month deal for Colossus’ roughly 300 megawatts of capacity is considered the first proof of that model. This is a multi-year theory measured in years, not quarters.

How Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are at the same point

The peer group has sold out to SPCX, although not violently. This appears to be a sector-wide reset combined with a company-specific unlock.

Children’s laboratory (NASDAQ:RKLB) is trading at $66.94, down 20.82% over the past month but up 41.13% over the past year. Its consensus target of $114.33 represents 70.79% upside, with 14 Buy and 3 Hold ratings. Neutron’s debut is a swing factor.

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) is trading at $58.29, down 18.42% over the past month and 19.74% over the past year. Its consensus target at $83.32 represents 42.94% upside, although a combination of 2 Buys, 7 Holds, and 2 Sells reads more cautiously than RKLB or SPCX.

The biggest analyst-pointed to the top in the group sits with SpaceX. Consensus alone indicates 108.56% higher, and Raymond James stretches well beyond. SPCX is where the widest gap lives.

What the actual numbers show

SPCX traded at $113.50 against the consensus target of $236.71, implying 108.56% upside across analyst panels. 11. Score Breakdown:

SPCX is down 29.48% since listing, 25.93% in the last month, and 5.3% in the last week. The S&P 500 gained 8.38% last year, a wide margin compared to SPCX’s IPO returns so far.

Market forecasts remain skeptical in the short term. Polymarket assigns only a 22.0% probability that SPCX will close above $120 by the end of the month, and only 3.15% for the S&P 500 aggregate in 2026.

Where I landed was actually SpaceX for $113

The bull case at $113 is on the reusable curve of Starship and the direct launch of Starlink turns the telecom provider into recurring revenue. That is a concrete path back to the $236.71 consensus. Orbital compute is an agent that may lead you to Raymond James’ $800 over the years.

The bear case builds if the expiration of the lock-up continues to reset the float, the xAI combination makes capital faster than the launch cadence creates a margin, and the profit remains theoretical rather than sustainable. Anything that turns it into a value trap dressed up as a giant growth story.

On balance, I rely on careful construction. The base case stands on its own without a moonshot, and the peer group confirms that this is a sector-wide adjustment. The installation makes the accumulation of patients more than running, and is suitable for investors who are comfortable to carry through more air bags.

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Contact editor@247wallst.com For any questions or corrections.